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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."